July in review: New York Mets

Grade: C

Incoming: OF Jeff Francoeur
Outgoing: OF Ryan Church

My views of the Francoeur trade were already posted at length, so this will be a shorter entry. Looking at his numbers post-trade, it actually looks like a relatively shrewd move by the Mets. Francoeur has been decidedly above-average, mainly on the strength of a power renewal. Francoeur's 2009 pre-trade ISO (slugging average minus batting average) was a paltry .102, a number befitting most middle-infielders. With the Mets, it's jumped to .188, and he's slugged 7 homers in 51 games. Now, this isn't a completely out-of-nowhere surge of power: the .102 mark was the lowest of his career, and most people recognize his ability to hit the ball hard when he makes contact. And as long as Francoeur can keep his ISO in the .180+ range, it will keep him firmly within the limits of an above-average hitter. He still isn't drawing any walks, but something is better than nothing.

The main problem with this is, when you don't draw any walks, your performance becomes really luck-driven. It's not a good idea to have luck-driven players up and down your lineup when you're the Mets and your luck is awful. But, more importantly, he doesn't play particularly good defense anymore. For whatever reason, he was a great defender in his first 3 years with the Braves, and has stopped being that. Last year, he posted a -4.7 UZR. It looked fluky, but then he came out in 09 and did the exact same thing (currently at -4.5). This is going to be a problem for the Mets because, frankly, they aren't smart enough to adequately deal with a player like Francoeur. No doubt, the reasonably above-average OPS and recent power surge will convince the Mets that they pulled a diamond from the rough, and make him a long term option in RF. Even with the power surge, he's flirting with replacement-level as a player. So, in some years, he'll get lucky enough to make his skill set look attractive; in most years, this probably won't be the case.

As far as the rest of July, well, I applaud them for not dumping prospects in a last-ditch attempt to save their season. That's about all I can say.

July in review: Florida Marlins

Grade: C+

Incoming: 1B Nick Johnson

Outgoing: *LHP Aaron Thompson

Well, it's not like the Marlins get a ton of flexibility. They can't spend money, can't afford to give up prospects, and don't really have the horses now to justify a bold, win-now move. So it should be no surprise that they didn't do much besides acquire a bit player. For a half-hearted push towards the wild card, the Marlins picked up a solid 1B with an expiring contract (and no type A or B status) for a AA pitcher with a modest resume. Meh. It's really hard to judge this as anything more than a trade for the sake of making a trade. And while it's not a bad trade, I just don't know what it does. Maybe, the Fish are gonna evaluate him in the lineup for a while (and to his credit, he's been very good), and then consider offering him an extension. It wouldn't be a bad idea, except I don't quite know what that does for Jorge Cantu's prospects. Then again, the Marlins are a very difficult team to project more than a few years down the road, since they are constantly calling up and then trading major leaguers. In any case, the Marlins trade an average prospect for a decent major leaguer for the rest of the year, and don't have to pay him (Nats covering the contract). Sure, why not. C+ for making one good, but insignificant, trade.

This year looks better/worse if: Meh. The risk/reward is about as low as it gets here.

July in review: Seattle Mariners

Grade: A

Incoming: *RHP Daniel Cortes, *LHP Derrick Saito, SS Jack Wilson, 3B Jack Hannahan, RHP Ian Snell, LHP Lucas French, *LHP Mauricio Robles, *RHP Robert Manuel.

Outgoing: SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF Wladimir Balentien, C/1B Jeff Clement, IF Ronny Cedeno, *RHP Justin Souza, LHP Jarrod Washburn, *RHP Ben Pribanic, *RHP Brett Lorin, *RHP Nathan Adcock.

GM Jack Zduriencik is a very, very busy man.

Essentially, GMZ has spent the entire year turning over the entire Bill Bavasi regime, and for good reason. After Bill Bavasi had spent an absurd amount of money and prospects to do absolutely nothing, the new front office had a ton of work to do. Thus, it should come as no surprise that 17 players went in or out of the Ms organization within a month. Of course, making moves for their own sake is not a prudent strategy either, and a lot of commentators were confused by August 1st. Selling Washburn and Betancourt for prospects, while trading prospects for Ian Snell and Jack Wilson? What's the goal? Well, in my estimation, the goal is to make any moves that make your organization better, and that's what they did.

First of all, trading Betancourt is a fantastic move, and that can't be overstated. Absolutely fantastic. Betancourt is one of the single worst everyday players in baseball, getting panned for his work-ethic and attitude while coupling a horrendous plate approach with declining defensive ability. And, he's being paid a significant amount of money for quite a while. Betancourt was getting to the point where he was in danger of getting cut, but instead Zduriencik pawned him off on a sucker (the Royals) and actually picked up decent prospects in return. Danny Cortes is not a great prospect, but he's got a nice arm that projects to be a solid reliever at least. It doesn't matter if Cortes ever makes the major leagues, that trade (Derrick Saito also went over) is the ultimate in addition-by-subtraction.

Now, talking about actual moves, other commentators wonder why the Mariners would bail on Jarrod Washburn in the midst of a remarkable season, for two mediocre prospects from the Tigers organization. Well, because they're smarter than those commentators. Washburn's 2.64(ish) ERA at the time was a total mirage that was just waiting to be corrected (the correction in Detroit has been, well, severe). Washburn's a decent back-end starter who probably will continue to be for the next couple years, but he's not an irreplaceable asset. Lucas French is a major league ready lefty starter who should pitch plenty of quality innings, similar in value to Washburn, even if he never becomes as good as Washburn. The Ms also pick up an intriguing arm in LHP Mauricio Robles, who pitched quite well in the low minors for the Tigers this year. He has definite major league stuff, and could develop into something special with the Ms if things go right. Not a bad haul for an impending FA that they weren't going to keep around anyway.

The other big story is bailing on a few of the Bavasi era's best known prospects (the ones that remained, anyway), Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien. Unfortunately for the Ms, they have performed about as well as everyone else from that era. Balentien had gotten himself DFAd at one point, necessitating the trade for Manuel. Clement had been completely unable to pass Kenji Johjima and Rob Johnson, two catchers who aren't really that good anyway. Clement was sent to the Pirates in the Wilson/Snell deal. It's hard to argue with bailing on 2 floundering prospects, but it just goes to show you how messed up the Bavasi regime truly was. Bringing in Wilson was a good idea, he's still a terrific defender, is OK with the bat, and is overall a solid contributor who can be a key part of a 2010 run. The acquisition of Wilson really demonstrates that while Jack Z is building for the future, he is not giving up on a 2010 run as well. That has to excite Mariners fans. Ian Snell is the ultimate buy-low candidate, falling out of favor with the Pirates after struggling with control problems, and later problems with anxiety and depression. Snell still has great stuff, and he's worth a flier.

Pribanic, Lorin, and Adcock all went into that Snell deal with Clement and Ronny Cedeno, only Lorin looks to have any sort of future. Souza, traded for 3B Jack Hannahan, could certainly make the big leagues, but he's more of a control specialist and probably won't become anything exceptional. And so, despite giving up 9 players, they really didn't lose a lot of talent. Considering all the value they pulled in, this could turn the entire organization around. I gave them a B+ when I started, but after really looking at how little high-ceiling talent they sent out, I had to bump it up to an A. The only reason they didn't get an A+ is my personal belief that they aren't going to get much out of the Ian Snell experiment. It's nitpicking, because this was some great work by Jack Z and his colleagues.

The year is better if: Snell realizes his potential.

The year is worse if: Clement realizes his own potential. The Ms don't really have depth at catcher, and Clement was considered a great prospect for a reason (although the boat has almost officially sailed on Clement as a big league catcher). If he turns it on, Jack Wilson isn't going to look like much of a return.

July in review: Cleveland Indians

Grade: A-

Incoming: *LHP Scott Barnes, *RHP Jason Knapp, *RHP Carlos Carrasco, *C Lou Marson, RHP Justin Masterson, *LHP Nick Hagadone, *IF Jason Donald, *RHP Connor Graham

Outgoing: 1B Ryan Garko, LHP Cliff Lee, OF Ben Francisco, C Victor Martinez, RHP Rafael Betancourt, *RHP Jon Meloan.

I don't think that much talent has ever been moved by one organization in one month in the history of baseball. The outgoing involved a Cy Young winner and one of the most premier hitters in the game, and the incoming includes multiple pre-eminent prospects in the game. No one has ever accused GM Mark Shapiro of being a passive GM. It's easy to look at the players given up and say "oh how can you give up so much talent??" But the fact is, the Indians just aren't getting a lot out of their core. They don't have a lot of money to spend, and they aren't winning now. With those kind of limitations, the only sane strategy is to go to the farm system, stock it up, and regroup in the next few years. However, you're still giving up a ton of talent, so you need to be replacing that with even more talent. Mission accomplished.

Carrasco, Marson, and Donald, 3 of the Phillies' top 5 prospects, were all on the Baseball America top 100 prospects list going into this season (52, 66, 69, respectively). Scott Barnes? 9th prospect in a deep Giants system. Jason Knapp got himself 10th on that Phillies list. Hagadone was 3rd in the Red Sox system, and Masterson was the 4th best in that system the previous year until graduating to the big leagues. That's an entire farm system's worth of talent being added to a system that already has a couple big talents, like Matt LaPorta and Carlos Santana. I'm not going to go in-depth into each player's scouting report, but consider this: in 4 years, they could reasonably have this lineup:

C: Carlos Santana

1B: Matt LaPorta

2B: Luis Valbuena

SS: Asdrubal Cabrera

3B: Jason Donald

LF: Nick Weglarz

CF: Grady Sizemore

RF: Shin-Soo Choo

DH: Beau Mills

SP: Justin Masterson

SP: Scott Barnes

SP: Jason Knapp

SP: Nick Hagadone

SP: Carlos Carrasco.

That's an entire rotation's worth of arms, in one deadline. And while only Donald cracked the lineup, Marson could easily push himself into the lineup at a different position, or push Santana to another one. If they don't have the #1 farm system in baseball now, it's damn close. They even improved by getting rid of Garko and Francisco, two average players who would have been blocking key prospects down the road.

The only reason they get a minus is because I think they could've gotten a better haul for Cliff Lee. At the time of the trade, OF Dominic Brown and RHP Kyle Drabek were considered better prospects. If I were Shapiro, I would've rather gone quality over quantity, and gotten those higher-ceiling guys at the expense of getting 4 prospects total. It's a minor quibble after a very good July.

The year looks better if: Can't judge the returns for 3 or 4 years. By then, we'll know just how well this works. If they're firing on all cylinders by then, much like the Indians did in 2007, Shapiro is going to be seen as a brilliant and a visionary.

This year looks worse if: Simply put, they can't afford to keep putting talent out there unsupported by ancillary players and having years like 08 and 09. The rebuild cycle has to be supported by shrewd secondary moves that produces an actual contender. Case in point: how many times is Shapiro going to fail to construct a passable bullpen? If you just repeat this same process 3 years later and deal more ML players for more prospects, it defeats the purpose.

July in review: San Francisco Giants

Grade: D-

Incoming: 2B Freddy Sanchez, 1B Ryan Garko
Outgoing: *LHP Scott Barnes, *RHP Tim Alderson

I ripped on Ned Colletti in the previous installment for trading away big-time prospects unnecessarily and too often. But, keep in mind, the players that Colletti are getting are, at the very least, good. He may have overpaid to get Casey Blake a year ago, and George Sherrill this year, but they are good players. Casey Blake is a 3 win player right now, which is solidly above average. George Sherrill is one of the better lefty relievers in baseball. So while I don't agree with their aggressiveness and willingness to give away prospects, they're adding some really quality major leaguers.

The reason I bring this up is that Colletti used to work under Giants GM Brian Sabean. And it shows, as they have both executed similar gameplans in pursuit of a pennant. But, the key difference here is that Sabean isn't actually getting good players, and he's giving up better prospects. Ryan Garko simply isn't very good. He's an OK bat, generally hovering around his career .800 OPS, and he plays defense that has been ok this year, but is usually terrible. The Giants haven't been getting a lot of offensive production, so they could certainly use Garko. However, there just isn't a whole lot of value in a 1B who posts an .800 OPS with dubious defensive ability. You know what there is a lot of value in? Scott Barnes. A 21 year old who is dominating high-A competition, Barnes has posted terrific strikeout numbers without the usual control problems. There is a lot to like about this kid, so much that Baseball America tabbed him as the team's 9th best prospects going into this year. And the Giants system is solid, so that's not just being overrated. Scott Barnes is the kind of player you trade for Matt Holliday, not Ryan Garko.

Slightly better, but still not good, was the trade for Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez is a better player than Garko, mainly by virtue of being a decent 2B instead of a below-average 1B. His bat hovers between great, average, and awful depending on how lucky he is at the given time. And yes, I'm calling it luck, because that's the kind of hitter he is; swing the bat, put the ball in play, hope it drops somewhere. No walks, no power, just base hits. As a result, he goves from being a 5 win player in 06, a 4 win player in 07, a 0.5 win player in 08, and now a 2.5 win player this year. Average that out, and you probably got a basic idea of what Sanchez' true value is: 3 wins. There's some value in that, without a doubt. But not Tim Alderson value. I can't overstate how high on the prospect radar this guy is. He's a better prospect than Barnes. He's a better prospect than any that were traded for Cliff Lee. He's been compared favorably to Rick Porcello. Again, he's the type of player you trade for Victor Martinez, Matt Holliday, Adam Dunn even. Freddy Sanchez? Come on.

Some quotes about this deal:

“What the hell?”

“My lord, Sabean, what are you doing?”

The best pitching prospect of the day doesn’t get traded for Cliff Lee, but for Freddy Sanchez. Awesome. Nice job, Cleveland."

Another way to put in the perspective: The Red Sox traded Nick Hagadone and Justin Masterson for Victor Martinez. Barnes and Alderson are better than those two, and came away with a decent 2B, and a 1B who is average in just about every possible way. I guess, technically, the major league club is better, by virtue of Emmanuel Burriss and Travis Ishikawa not being any good. But, if you're going to trade your #2 and #3 pitching prospects, you should probably come away with a batter who is going to OPS better than .700 once they get there (and no, Sanchez and Garko have not yet done that).

This year is better if: I guess if they make the playoffs and win the pennant or the WS, people aren't really going to care, but that's really the only thing that's going to make it look good. Or if Alderson and Barnes don't make it in the bigs, but I'm calling that unlikely.

This year is worse is: Well, you can't be much worse than D-. However, every time Tim Alderson rolls into town with a yellow P on his cap, Giants fans are going to wonder why anyone is supposed to give a damn about Freddy Sanchez and his 180 singles a year.

July in review: LA Dodgers

Grade: C-

Incoming: *C Vinny Rottino, LHP George Sherrill

Outgoing: RHP Claudio Vargas, *RHP Steve Johnson, *3B Josh Bell

Another year, another deal where LA GM Ned Colletti gives up a top prospect for a major leaguer of dubious usefulness. Last year, they traded big-time C prospect Carlos Santana for Casey Blake, but that at least made sense: they had a huge hole at 3rd, and they already have Russell Martin. So even though they overpaid for Blake, it was a move that they could afford to make. However, I can't say the same thing about this deal. Colletti is going all in for a championship this year, and I don't have a problem with that strategy. However, they're giving up a lot for a bullpen arm. Because as good as Sherrill is at his job (and believe me, he is good), he's still a bullpen arm.

Steve Johnson is a decent arm, a starter with quality stuff with control issues who is probably bound for a move to the bullpen. He's probably a lesser version of James McDonald, who is already with the team, so I don't think they'll miss him. However, they will miss Josh Bell. They don't now, but it won't take long. See, here's the problem with going all-in for a championship this year: Colletti did the same thing last year. Not only did he give up Santana for Blake, he gave up Andy LaRoche to pick up Manny Ramirez. I had no problem with that deal; LaRoche hadn't proved anything, and Manny is obviously terrific. However, Casey Blake is 35 years old. He can't play 3rd with the Dodgers forever. The heir to that position was supposed to be LaRoche, he's gone. That was ok, because they had the very talented Josh Bell waiting in the wings, who would've been ready once Casey Blake declined. Now Bell is gone. Bell is an absolutely legit prospect--draws walks, legit power potential--so good that a Fangraphs article mentioned that he would be a major league starter by 2011, after they ranked him ahead of Nick Hagadone, Jason Knapp, and Tim Alderson. That's big time stuff.

Kim Ng, Logan White, and the rest of the Dodgers farm staff do a very good job, but I don't know how many times they can dump top 3B prospects and still be able to replace Blake. Yes, that's 3 years away, but they're taking an awfully big risk by leaving such a big hole in their organization. Good 3Bs are getting to be very hard to come by. So, if you're going to keep buying for a championship, well, you better win the dang thing. C- is what you get when you overpay for bullpen arms.

This year looks better if: No one is going to give a damn about Carlos Santana or Josh Bell if the Dodgers win a WS this year or next. It's that simple.

This year looks worse if: They will look like complete bozos if they end up having to keep buying a new 3B every couple of years, and Ned Colletti is still tooling around without a World Series rings.

July in review: Arizona Diamondbacks

Grade: B+

Incoming: *1B Brandon Allen, *RHP Roque Mercedes, *OF Cole Gillespie

Outgoing: IF Felipe Lopez, RHP Tony Pena

Tony Pena and Felipe Lopez are decent major leaguers, to be sure. However, for the floundering D-backs, there isn't a whole lot of value. Tony Pena has always had good stuff, but is little more than an average middle reliever at this point. Lopez is a quality infielder, but he's a free agent at the end of the year, and was probably not sticking around. Simply put, the major league club doesn't lose any irreplaceable players with serious long-term value. The D-backs were in seller mode, and they executed that strategy well.

They get a B+ because of Brandon Allen. The 1B prospect pulled out of the White Sox organization is a big-time slugger with serious power. In addition, he's improved this year in hitting for average and avoiding strike outs, which are great assets to any power hitter. Quite frankly, they ripped off the White Sox by nabbing him for Tony Pena. To drive the point home, Allen has completely destroyed AAA pitching since switching organizations. He's got the potential to be a stalwart long-term presence at 1st for the D-backs. Cole Gillespie profiles as a 4th outfielder, and Roque Mercedes looks like a decent middle reliever candidate down the road. That's some serious depth added for very little present value given back. This, my friends, is how you sell at the deadline. The only reason they get a B+ and not an A, is because they probably could've been more proactive in dealing other players, like Doug Davis. However, it's nitpicking.

This year looks better if: The three prospects meet or exceed expectations. It's already good, but if Brandon Allen becomes a big league masher, people are going to wonder about that deal for a long time.

This year looks worse if: There's nothing that could happen to make it look bad. Even if none of the prospects make it to the big leagues, the salary dump alone is beneficial to the organization.